Expected loss for maintenance managers
Expected loss is the average cost of a failure mode over a year if the future looks like the history you are willing to stand behind. In one line: the number of times a year you expect the event, multiplied by what it costs when it happens. Four events in two years, at $12,000 each, is $24,000 a year of expected loss. That number is an estimate. It is still a better starting point for a budget conversation than a single memorable breakdown.
You can reduce expected loss by making the event rarer, or cheaper, or both. Those reductions are assumptions until you have evidence. Show a range, show the cost of the program, and let payback and NPV be arithmetic, not a slogan. The full working — including a confidence interval on the rate, a Pareto view, and finance metrics — is the risk-quantification method. The calculator runs the same math. A facilitated write-up is the business case service.